Tuesday, 15 Oct 2019 | 16 Safar 1441
Low pressure likely to intensify into tropical cyclone in 24hrs

Low stress most likely to intensify into tropical cyclone in 24hrs

“The low pressure area in Southeast Arabian Sea has become more marked on Monday morning. Not only this, the system is getting more organised with every passing minute. In fact, cloud configuration and atmospheric conditions are already indicating that system might have already intensified into a depression.”

Oman’s National Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre issued an advisory on Monday stating, “Latest observations and satellite imageries showed development of tropical low pressure area with surface wind speed ranging from 17 to 25 knots located southeast of the Arabian Sea at latitude 9°N and longitude 60°E. The centre of the tropical depression is 1,000km away from Salalah city. The nearest convective clouds to Salalah city is 530km. All indications show no direct effect on the sultanate in the coming three days.”

Weather maps and numerical climate prediction recommend additional improvement as the program moves westerly to northwesterly towards the coast of the Al Wusta and Dhofar governorates. The Public Authority for Civil Aviation has advised folks to adhere to climate bulletins and reports. According to the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center, international models are largely in agreement that the program will track to the north and commence to consolidate quickly more than the subsequent couple of days.

“The exact location of landfall over Oman is still uncertain. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium,” the centre mentioned in its forecast. According to weathermen at Skymet Weather, the program is presently travelling in utmost favourable climate circumstances. The parameters which are necessary for the additional intensification of the program are all present, correct from low wind shear to extended sea travel ahead to conducive sea surface temperatures (SST) to the tune of 31°C. “It is very rare that we see SST over 31°C in the sea. With such temperatures, we have ample amount of oceanic heat available which would definitely push the system to gain more strength,” mentioned G P Sharma, president, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

“Looking at the curved bands of clouds, we even count on that the program would intensify into a cyclonic storm in the subsequent 24 hours itself. If this takes place, it would be named as ‘Mekunu’. For the subsequent couple of hours, the program would continue to travel in west path, thereafter it would move west-northwest path. The program is most most likely to head towards Oman or Yemen. Although Somalia might escape direct interaction with the program but the peripheral of the program would impact climate.

Information Source: Muscat Daily

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