Humaid al Badi, acting director, Research and Development, DGM, PACA stated, “This cyclone was overdue for some time. Statistically if you see, we were expecting it. On an average of every five years, a cyclone makes landfall in Oman.” Badi stated that distinct models will be employed to locate out the causes behind this cycle.
Experts in DGM will examine the old information with the new findings. “We will study the various reasons behind the cyclone. Is it the abnormal sea surface temperature that is causing this cyclone or is it seasonal abnormality that has led to it? We will look for similarities and differences in all cyclones because each one was unique.”
Badi stated radars installed in 2014 helped DGM to estimate the quantity of rainfall that Oman would obtain a lot prior to the cyclone hit Dhofar. “We have a total of five such radars. Statistics show no change of patterns in the formation of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. In 2007, we had Gonu. In 2010 we had Phet and in 2011 we had Keila. Now, this Mekunu.”
Consequently, Oman has been ranked as the most vulnerable nation in the GCC to be impacted by intense climate events, ranking 28th in the Global Climate Risk Index 2018. The index analyses to what extent nations have been impacted by the impacts of climate-connected events such as storms, floods and heat waves.
According to the study, ‘Projection of Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Patterns in Oman’ by Dr Yassine Charabi from Sultan Qaboos University, the threat from the possible impacts of climate modify has been expanding with the current tropical cyclones that had impacted the nation and triggered loss of life and substantial harm all through the coastal places of Oman. Simulating typical annual rainfall adjustments throughout the periods 2011-40 and 2041-70, the study revealed that most of Oman will grow to be drier, with huge portions of Al Hajar Mountains getting up to 40mm much less in annual rainfall all through the projection period. On the other hand, study final results indicated that summer season monsoons are probably to intensify, major to elevated rainfall in the southwestern components of the nation.
“By 2070, most of the Dhofar governorate and a large part of the Al Wusta governorate are projected to receive up to 20mm more in annual rainfall, with up to 60mm more rainfall along coastal zones in the far southwestern parts of Oman,” stated Dr Charabi.
Information Source: Muscat Daily